TrainMyPoker

Poker Variance

A win rate is an average, and the average is not what any given stretch looks like. Put in your edge and how much your results swing, and this shows the range of outcomes you should actually expect: the downswings, the chance of being behind after a sample, and the bankroll it takes to survive.

How it plays out

Hover the chart to read a point.
20 simulated samples average of those samples the win rate on its own bankroll gone — sample ends
Draw samples on the chart, and run simulations behind the numbers

Click the chart or press 1 to keep re-rolling — Esc or click again to stop.

Your game

bb/100
A good small-stakes online winner is 3–8.
bb/100
~90 for tight full-ring, ~100 six-max, 130+ for loose games.
hands
A full-time online year is roughly 300,000.
bb
30 buy-ins at 100bb.
£
Only converts the answers to money.

After the sample

Expected profit

Surviving it

Risk of ruin
Bankroll for a % risk of ruin