A win rate is an average, and the average is not what any given stretch looks like. Put in your edge and how much your results swing, and this shows the range of outcomes you should actually expect: the downswings, the chance of being behind after a sample, and the bankroll it takes to survive.
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Prizes follow the usual steep tournament curve over the paid places, and your finishing position is drawn from a skill-weighted distribution across the whole field — tilted upwards just far enough to produce the ROI you asked for. That is what makes the shape below: a long, grinding decline punctuated by rare, enormous spikes.